El Niño Could Lift U.S. PCE Prices by Up to 1 Percentage Point If La Niña Follows
Photo: TokenPost
A Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco analysis says El Niño poses a risk of lifting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices by up to 1 percentage point in 2027 if La Niña follows. The estimate describes a modeled risk, not a forecast. Without La Niña following El Niño, the analysis finds no additional net price effect in 2027. Food and core services account for most of the modeled pressure. The analysis draws on 22 historical El Niño episodes, only four of which were very strong.
Source: TokenPost
