AI Models Estimate Bitcoin’s 20-Year Cryptographic-Break Risk at 34%-76%

Four artificial intelligence models placed Bitcoin’s 20-year risk of a practical cryptographic break between 34% and 76%, highlighting uncertainty about future quantum computers and the need to plan for cryptographic migration. The scenario analysis examined Bitcoin’s current ECDSA and Schnorr signature systems over the secp256k1 elliptic curve across two-, five-, 10- and 20-year horizons. ChatGPT-6 Astra estimated approximately 76%, Grok Expert 60%, Claude Opus 5.5 about 66% and Deepseek Deepthink 34%. The models’ two-year estimates ranged from 0% to 2%.

Source: TokenPost